Is Smartphone Innovation Dead?

If I were to ask you to name the latest developments in smartphones, you would probably choose foldable smartphones, more sophisticated and quicker CPUs, higher-quality camera megapixels, or artificial intelligence. Though it is true that smartphone innovations have become stale, and if we include foldable phones, they aren’t really addressing any significant issues that exist. These innovations could be considered cool, but they aren’t necessarily ones that actually impact how a smartphone is used. Additionally, even though many companies are betting on AI as the next big innovation, in reality, AI in these phones is just gimmicky; that is, they have just made already-existing AI more approachable and referred to it as innovation. For example, Samsung’s new circle search function is really a fresh application of Google Lens, which has been there for years.

The upgraded megapixel camera, which offers only a marginal improvement over the last model, tends to be the primary selling point whenever a new smartphone is launched. This trend holds true for many devices, and the same applies to other features as well. In reality, the majority of users never really utilise the full potential of their smartphones. For example, when was the last time we felt that we actually needed a Snapdragon 8 Gen 2 chipset in our phones? Most users can’t even tell the difference between a smartphone’s performance or picture quality compared to its predecessor, which these companies claim is mind-blowing.

The following are some significant advancements in the smartphone business that have genuinely changed our lives and broadened the possibilities for smartphone use:

• Internet connectivity: The first phone with internet access was the Nokia 9000 Communicator (1996).
• Colour Displays: Mobile devices first used colour screens with the Simon S10 (1998) and Nokia 9210 (2000).
• Cameras: The first camera phone was the Samsung SC-V200 (2000), followed by the Nokia N95 (2007), which had video recording capabilities.
• Touchscreens: Although the iPhone (2007) popularised the idea, the IBM Simon (1992) was an early touchscreen phone.
• Front-Facing Cameras: First introduced in the late 1990s, front-facing cameras were popularised by the iPhone 4 (2010).
• Video Calling: This capability has since been made commonplace and was made popular by the iPhone 4.
• 4K Video: High-quality video now requires 4K capabilities, which were first introduced by the Acer Liquid S2 (2013).
• Two Cameras: First debuted in the HTC EVO 3D (2011), two cameras have now become widely used in subsequent versions.
• All-Touch Displays: One of the distinguishing features of contemporary smartphones is the shift towards bezel-less screens.
• Wireless Technologies: Modern smartphones also depend heavily on innovations like Bluetooth and NFC.



As you may have noticed, the majority of inventions occurred within the previous ten years or even earlier. After that, there are only nice innovations rather than essential innovations that truly shaped the smartphone market.

Examining the global shipments of smartphones from 2009 to 2023, we find that they peaked in 2016 with 1473.41 million units shipped. Since then, shipments have been steadily declining, reaching a total of just 1166.9 million units in 2023, with Apple accounting for the largest share with 234.6 million units shipped globally, followed by Samsung with 226.6 million units. Although there was a 40% increase (from 3.9 billion to 6.5 billion), this increase isn’t mirrored in smartphone shipment figures. This indicates that consumers are keeping their devices for a longer time and are less inclined to upgrade to newer models as often as they used to.

According to reports as of April 2023, more than 61% of smartphone users in India switched their primary smartphones after at least two years of use. This could be explained by the fact that users may believe their current smartphones are sufficient to meet their daily needs and that, with companies now offering software updates for up to five or seven years, there is little reason for a user to upgrade their current smartphones. Merely 10% of smartphone users switched devices within the first six months of ownership. People most frequently purchase new phones because their old phones aren’t functioning as well as they once did. We could infer from the above that humans are not genuinely replacing their smartphones because of any new features or innovations, but rather because of the typical slowdown of their processors or the depletion of their batteries. In fact, Apple was aware of this problem as well because they were heavily criticised for their lack of innovation after the iPhone 16 was released. They decided to discontinue their yearly launch event as a result, and all smartphones that have been produced in the past two years are actually very similar.

You could wonder, “What’s the point of writing this article if there is so much evidence against a lack of innovation?” Shouldn’t the answer be obvious—the smartphone innovation is dead—every coin has two sides, and this question is no exception. It would be incorrect to claim that there hasn’t been an attempt to create any new breakthroughs, even though we haven’t witnessed any real innovations in the past ten or so years. For example, the pop-up camera was a useful invention that addressed privacy concerns and enhanced the quality of the front camera, which had been a major worry for years. It also shielded the camera from potential damage, but this idea was abandoned because the pop-up mechanism required a lot of room and had serious maintenance problems. Additionally, manufacturers had to make compromises on the battery capacity and sleek designs of smartphones.

Although foldables have long been a contentious choice for smartphones of the future, it would be incorrect to leave them off our list because they are still a work in progress. We still need to determine their use utility, even though we may have mastered design utility. However, AI has the potential to be the true game-changer in this area; the question now is, how? Use of multimodal AI. If you’re wondering what multimodal AI is, it’s essentially the ability to analyse not only text but also sounds and visuals, which makes it much more flexible. Recent developments in this field by OpenAI enable sophisticated interactions, including photographing a bike and requesting information on how to modify its seat. This feature creates new opportunities for user interaction, but it also reminds us that hardware is required to fully exploit this potential. This might be the beginning of a completely new shift away from smartphones, similar to Meta’s recent partnership with Ray-Ban to introduce new smart glasses that hint at the integration of multimodal AI. Apple’s announcement of its virtual reality headsets also points in that direction.


For a gadget to create the next “Apple moment,” it needs to excel in three crucial areas to truly succeed.

• Capturing Surroundings: Smart glasses provide a more natural way to engage with technology by using cameras to record ambient context and microphones to record spoken instructions.
• Processing: It’s critical to be able to identify what the user is hearing and seeing. AI can respond with greater intelligence thanks to this contextual awareness.
• Response: Devices must efficiently relay information to users. Visual output is still difficult, even when audio feedback is simple. Transparent lenses that can superimpose helpful information onto the user’s field of vision are the ideal situation.
 
We can draw the conclusion that the rate of smartphone innovation has undoubtedly slowed down. When this staleness occurs, a new boom—the primary leap the smartphone industry is aiming for—is always imminent.

References:

Have we passed the peak of the smartphone era? (2024, September 30). World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/stories/2021/08/smartphone-growth-peak-5g-apple-samsung-iphone-tech/ 

Marx, P. (2024, September 13). Smartphone innovation is dead, and that’s fine. Disconnect. https://disconnect.blog/smartphone-innovation-is-dead-and-thats-fine/ 

Long, M. (2024, November 17). Smartphone innovation is dead – Michael Long – Medium. Medium. https://michaellong.medium.com/smartphone-innovation-is-dead-ae6a921c563b 

Statista. (2024, July 30). Smartphone shipments volume India 2011-2023. https://www.statista.com/statistics/792767/india-smartphone-shipments-volume/ 

Enrico Tartarotti. (2023, October 24). Smartphones are dead (But we FINALLY know what’s next) [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB6TdukUsAg 

Ardently Tech. (2023, October 17). Is smartphone innovation dying? [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1V99fL88GEo Most of the traditional use cases of Industry 4.0, such as the Internet of Thing